Numbers never lie, as the saying goes. If true, then cannabis entrepreneurs can breathe a little easier…but just a little.

The cannabis industry is still growing. It’s not growing as fast as it once did; there are headwinds in more mature markets like Colorado and California. The lack of banking and federal reform continues to punch everyone in the face. Despite all of these sobering facts, there’s growth in new markets as more states and localities are embracing the exuberance of legal weed every day.

BDSA recently announced an update of its cannabis market forecast—a five-year rolling global forecast by country, state, province, channel, and category. The report projects global cannabis sales to grow from $30 billion in 2021 to $55 billion in 2026, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of almost 13%. In the United States, cannabis sales will grow from $25 billion in 2021 to $40 billion in 2026, a 73% share of total global cannabis sales at that time. Further, legal cannabis sales in the U.S. will reach $27 billion by the end of 2022, a jump of 6% over 2021 sales of $25 billion.

“The ‘hockey stick’ trend of sales growth seen in the early years of legal cannabis has passed,” said Roy Bingham, CEO of BDSA, “and economic and regulatory headwinds are exerting pressure on legal cannabis markets. Still, our updated forecast predicts that steady gains in developing U.S. markets will continue to drive single-digit annual growth in total U.S. legal sales in 2022, with continued growth prospects out to 2026.”

While sales have plateaued and even fallen in some of the most mature markets such as California, Colorado, Washington and Oregon, driven by declines in retail prices and a challenging macroeconomic situation, newer markets continue to see brisk sales growth. I wanted to drill down on the BDSA report with Bingham so that we all can make more informed decisions as we try to grow our businesses or start new ones.

Our conversation clearly demonstrates the need for the industry to engage in cooperation within itself so that the external adversaries holding everyone back can be outsmarted. The industry must invest more in public policy if it’s to improve access, lower taxes, streamline regulations and licensing, and become more profitable by welcoming and competing with illicit operators. After all, the data doesn’t lie.